A Postindustrial columnist, farmer, and candidate for Michigan State Senate writes that politicians are leaning into the one certain thing that doesn’t work with rural voters.
Running on “affordability” risks several pitfalls:
- Affordability is supposed to be any politician’s day job, not something they do once.
- It sounds like these politicians want to go back to the status quo ante. What is your plan to decouple from China? Are we just going to outsource everything?
- Affordability is a platitude – what exactly are you going to do?
Think New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani – freeze rents; run city-owned grocery stores. Actual ideas.
My top 4 expenses, similar to many of my neighbors, are:
1) Propane
2) Insurance
3) Gasoline & Diesel
4) Electricity
These all exceed either property taxes or food, to put this in perspective.
How are you going to reduce the price of propane? Michigan is doing its darndest to close the Line 5 pipelines from Canada. Those pipelines ultimately supply 55% of Michigan’s propane. Both sides agree that closure will increase propane prices. They simply argue about how much.
Rest assured, those in favor of closing Line 5 are connected to natural gas; those opposed use propane. There is a very clear class division going on here.
Insurance? That is due to electric vehicles and increasing complexity required by regulation (and yes, consumer demand). In Michigan, it also includes dramatic increases in premises liability premiums because the Michigan Supreme Court eliminated the “open and obvious” doctrine.
How are you going to fix this?
Gasoline & Diesel? Gasoline is all on Trump. But that is only a $1/gallon increase. Diesel should be $1 cheaper than gasoline. Rural voters grouse that at $4/gallon for gasoline, diesel should be $3/gallon. But it isn’t.
Why? Because environmentalists killed the diesel car in the US (there are none for sale at this point), dramatically reducing volume; and the EPA imposed draconian Renewable Volume Obligations on diesel, dramatically increasing the cost of renewable credits that must be purchased. Not to mention that California successfully shut down two of the nation’s refineries.
Voters who use diesel understand these issues. Urban voters do not.
How are you going to fix diesel prices?
Electricity: My rate has gone up 65% since I moved back to Michigan in 2019. It is all infrastructure, primarily because of the move to renewables.
How are you going to fix this?
Food went up 5% in the last two years. Minimum wage is going up 42% in the same time period in Michigan (from $10.33/hour January 1, 2025 to $15.00/hour January 1, 2027); nationwide wages went up 7%. Food is getting more affordable, not less.
Sure, perception and reality diverge here. But how can you possibly fix this? The minimum wage increase immediately affects the rate for guest worker labor for next year’s growing season. Food will be getting more expensive, not less.
Curated issues run the risk of bad policy – you aren’t fixing the real issue:
To reduce food prices, some politicians advocate for removing all tariffs on food stuff. Sure – and consequently drive more farmers out of business, while at the same time reducing food security.
Food security is national security. Rural voters understand this. It is the same reason we don’t outsource our fighter jets to China. It certainly would be cheaper.
The US already imports 59% of its fruits. Let’s not make this worse.
Urban America and economists don’t understand what motivates rural voters
One of the reasons Democrats struggle with rural voters is because the money Democrats hand out to rural voters never really moves the needle. Paul Krugman seems baffled by this and routinely says that rural voters vote against their economic interests – and that it is because of cultural resentment.
No, they vote against their economic interests as defined by you.
Nor is it resentment. It is just that handouts are not what motivates most rural voters.
In any event, economists fail to value non-monetary benefits, like reduced regulation and reduced government intrusion. Nor do they deduct for rural benefits that go heavily to non-voters.
I have yet to overhear anyone talking about affordability as an issue. This is a curated emergency teased out by operatives, the media, and pollsters. I have seen many of these polls – when a voter is asked “Which is most important to you: Climate Change, Trans, or Affordability,” affordability is the only plausible answer. It isn’t really what concerns voters.
Yet the media continues to parrot that “We all know that Affordability is the main issue,” or “The polls overwhelmingly show . . .” Rubbish.
To find out what really bothers people, you have to be a fly on the wall in a purely rural setting – and you have to be completely trustworthy. Neither politicians nor pollsters can tease this out on their own.
What are rural voters concerned about?
Over the past week, I went to Farm Bureau events, the Men’s Breakfast in my township, and the church cookout yesterday. I do not bring up politics at these events. I just observe.
People talked about Ukraine and the threat of drones. They were worried about Michigan’s decision to switch primarily to natural gas for baseload electricity generation. If a couple of natural gas pipelines are blown up, we will lose 75% of our electricity generation. How will we cope? Will farms be prioritized? How long does our natural gas strategic reserve last?
If cell phone towers or GPS go down, will we continue to be able to farm? Farming increasingly relies on both.
Michigan tore down 1/3 of its baseload electricity-generating plants (Michigan was greatly overbuilt in 2015). In the near future, we will need to rebuild those plants (at cost plus 10%). Who will pay for that?
Michigan now ranks 44th in reading. What are we doing to fix that? Should we all be homeschooling?
There is a huge inventory of unoccupied and decaying rural homes. Why won’t people buy them? How do we help young people who no longer have the skills or desire to tackle a home that needs work?
These are real issues.
Will any of this matter in the 2026 Mid-term Elections?
That is a turnout question. If Republicans and rural voters do not turn out, Democrats should do just fine. Nothing on the Republican side is exciting or energizing. The pastor for a local church mentioned that last night.
I finally asked a question about the “Affordability” push. He just laughed.
