Now that Biden has COVID, talk is accelerating among Capitol Hill Democrats and others that he should step aside in the election.
Mark Yonkman is the founder of the newly created Super PAC Reclaim the Rural Vote and a rural vote messaging expert. Mark’s background straddles not only the rural and urban worlds but the black/white, gay/straight, and farm/professional worlds as well.
The recent assassination attempt should have made Democrats accelerate their decision to replace the current presidential slate.
A common refrain I heard this week was “if Democrats would just put up someone in the center, I would vote for them over Trump.” Democrats have that team in Josh Saphiro and Pete Buttigieg.That team covers the Upper Midwest swing states, providing a perfect counterbalance to JD Vance, and yet would be the most diverse team ever put forth by Democrats. And they would win.
The continuing dithering by the Democratic Party is simply driving more voters away. The assassination attempt focused voter’s minds on Biden’s fragility. And on how resilient and strong Trump appears to be. Voters are eager to see the Democrats’ new team.
What makes the Shapiro – Buttigieg ticket attractive to rural conservative voters?
Voters like Mayor Pete. When someone mentions Pete, and I ask them why they like Pete, the answer consistently starts with his 8 years of military service. That he volunteered to serve after going to Harvard. That not only is he from the Midwest, he chose to make his permanent home in Northern Michigan. That he was an effective and well-liked Mayor of a large Rust Belt city. And that despite his time at the Department of Transportation not being easy, he never makes gaffes and he always presents as trying to do the right thing.
This week, I had the opportunity to ask about JD Vance, and the response was similar – often, the same voters liked him because he served as a Marine, was raised in rural Ohio, and is a successful entrepreneur.
[Be sure to check out Postindustrial’s take on JD Vance and his future in the MAGA movement.]
The same can be said about Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro – though not well known, voters mention that he is from a military family, is a centrist governor, and that Progressives don’t like him. Which is a good thing – the term “Progressive” has now become a slur in much of middle America. Many Democrats in the heartland are astute enough to put that label on the shelf until the current wave of craziness subsides and no longer describe themselves as “Progressive” even though their positions haven’t changed.
For each of these candidates, the comments are about character and accomplishments.
The hidden reason why Shapiro, Buttigieg, Vance, and others resonate with voters and why Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton do not
At lunch the other day, the Chair of our county Republican Party commented in passing that Republicans were lucky Michelle Obama wasn’t running because she would win. And he is correct.
I was at first surprised when conservative rural voters would bring up Michelle Obama, Oprah, Pete Buttigieg and Angela Merkel as leaders they like. (Interesting that Merkel comes up). But looking into their backgrounds exposes that they are all similar – each has a background of hardship and challenges that have made them the people they are today. Michelle is from the South side of Chicago, Oprah from poverty in the rural South, Pete in an environment of structural U.S. homophobia where he couldn’t serve openly in the military or marry whom he chose. And Merkel who grew up in communist East Germany.
It is pressure that creates the diamond. Each of them relates to voters, yet none of them wear these hardships on their sleeves.
Michelle Obama said it best in her first commencement speech: “You should never view your challenges as a disadvantage. Instead, it’s important for you to understand that your experience facing and overcoming adversity is actually one of your biggest advantages.”
Why Kamala Harris won’t win
The vice president’s unpopularity stems from the fact that she presents as a privileged, affluent, and entitled urban woman firmly from the intellectual class—just as Hillary Clinton did. And indeed, she is. Both of her parents were professors. She was raised in the urban, affluent Bay Area in California. She summered in India. She went to high school in Montreal, Canada.
There was never a question for her whether or not she would attend college. And she never lived in a place or time where she couldn’t marry the white man of her choice. In contrast to Pete Buttigieg, who couldn’t marry the white man of his choice until 2015. Kamala also could have served openly in the military but chose not to. Pete chose to serve but had to do so in the closet when he joined the military in 2009 because the U.S. continued to have formal structural homophobia in the military until President Obama repealed “don’t ask, don’t tell” in 2011.
Two of the vice president’s missteps demonstrate her disdain for the less educated and the less privileged. First, in explaining her opposition to the requirement to send in a copy of a driver’s license for absentee voting, was her comment that rural Americans couldn’t make a copy of their driver’s license. I thought this was fake news until I watched the clip on ABC where she did, in fact, say this, and in the most condescending tone possible. Farmers with GPS in our tractors and multiple printers at home can’t figure out how to make a copy of a driver’s license? I was very cross with her for making this derogatory comment. In point of fact, the reason Democrats were pushing back on the requirement to make a copy of a driver’s license wasn’t because of rural voters. It was because of the youth voter.
A second example is the vice president’s border security fiasco. Addressing the root causes of the immigration crisis is, of course, a noble endeavor. It is also what an elite urban privileged candidate raised by two professors would do.
But she completely missed that she had a team to convince, meaning border control. Anyone in corporate America who was given this task would have immediately flown down to the border and met with their people.
A good manager would want to know if her team understands what she is doing and whether the team is on the same page. Having never run a line of business, the vice president missed that the first stop is with your team. And a prosecutor never visits the scene of the crime.
Ignoring her border team, Harris instead flew down to Guatemala and famously said “Do not come.” When asked why she didn’t visit our southern border, she replied with the comment that she had never been to Europe either. Not only did she ignore her border patrol team, no one has been able to explain how any of this addressed the root causes of our immigration surge.
On top of her inability to connect with middle America, President Biden has repeatedly conveyed that he does not believe Harris can win.
In his ABC interview, Biden repeatedly stated that he is the only one who could beat Trump. I was expecting him to tout the strength of his vice president, but instead, he threw her under the bus. But if anyone should know, it would be him.
The diversity of a Shapiro – Buttigieg ticket
If Democrats are honest with themselves, they should be thrilled with the diversity that a Shapiro – Buttigieg team would bring to the ticket. Pennsylvania and Michigan would be on the ticket and would secure the swing state vote in the upper Midwest (like Vance). The ticket would also appeal to the youth vote (like Vance). It would appeal to the military vote and those who think that military service is important in a commander-in-chief (like Vance). It also would appeal to the rural vote because Pete is at least rural adjacent (like Vance). And it would be the centrist ticket that Democrats and Republicans are desperately seeking. And, of course, we would have our first gay vice president and our first Jewish president. I can’t think of a more diverse ticket.
Democrats need to stop the bleeding
Note that when voters speak favorably about Obama, Oprah, Vance, Merkel, and Buttigieg, it is always about who they are and what they have done. It is never about their race, sexual orientation, or policy positions. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is viewed unfavorably and is always described based on her sex, race, and policy position on abortion. That simply is not a winning description. No one has ever said that the best thing about Pete Buttigieg is that he is a gay male.
Before this weekend there were very few Trump signs up. Immediately after the assassination attempt, Trump signs went up. With the current Democratic slate, Democrats have nothing new to say.
Voters need a new team with new ideas and a new campaign staff. Democrats have that team in Shapiro and Buttigieg.
